COP28 – Nov. 29

This week, experts, economists, policymakers and activists will gather in Dubai for the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP28). Key issues that will be discussed include taking stock of climate progress, phasing out fossil fuels, and how to finance the energy transition in developing countries.

• COP28 will be critical for Southeast Asia. The region, home to over 600 million people, is rich in biodiversity and increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Decarbonisation and climate adaptation efforts need to be stepped up simultaneously in this region. A just transition, financing for adaptation, loss and damage funding and early retirement of coal plants are among the key issues for the region.

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend COP28, underlying the country’s commitment to the issue of climate change. During India’s recently concluded presidency of the G20, leaders agreed to pursue tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030 and accepted the need to phase down unabated coal power. However, they stopped short of setting major climate goals. France, backed by the United States, plans to seek a halt to private financing for coal-based power plants. India is unlikely to favour such a plan, and the proposal could further divide the group as major emerging nations like India still depend on coal to fuel their fast economic growth.

• China’s addiction to building new coal-fired power plants is becoming increasingly entrenched, even as the country is on track to reach peak CO2 emissions before its 2030 target.

• Warming ties between China and the US could help avoid a political “car crash” at COP28, yet analysts doubt the chances of genuine policy breakthroughs. Earlier in November, the two countries jointly released the Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis, a comprehensive deal that aligns the pair on many aspects of climate policy. This includes support to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. China also agreed to more ambitious and transparent economy-wide 2035 national climate targets, and both sides will restart various dialogues that have run aground amid political turbulence in recent years. The two will also aim to work more closely on limiting emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, two greenhouse gases that contribute even more to global warming than carbon dioxide. While the Sunnylands Statement was widely welcomed, experts cautioned that many issues remain unresolved and will need to be negotiated in depth in Dubai.

• Vietnam is finalising reform commitments with G7 governments and multilateral lenders that could unlock billions of dollars in loans to reduce coal use in the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub.

• Talks at COP28 are expected to be shadowed by regional conflicts and a contest of ideas around the transition to green fuels. Singapore Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu will be co-facilitating negotiations on mitigation, the third time she has played a role in anchoring the talks.

• Australia will bring evidence that it can meet its 2030 emissions target but is facing pressure to do more to limit the country’s fossil fuel exports. Australia’s emissions projections have improved despite the federal and state governments supporting new and expanded fossil fuel developments, mostly to export coal and gas to Asia.

• As extreme weather events increase in intensity and frequency, women and girls across the Asia Pacific are exposed to disproportionate challenges such as increasing food insecurity, depleting natural resources, and increased exposure to gender-based violence. At this year’s COP 28, UN Women will ensure that women and girls’ rights, abilities, and priorities are taken into account in climate debates and influence government policies to raise climate ambition. Women and girls have been at the forefront of climate activism so can offer unique knowledge and expertise—including among indigenous, rural, and young populations. This, in turn, can support more ambitious and effective climate action.

• An investigation by the BBC and the Centre for Climate Reporting (CCR) said the UAE planned to use its role as the host of UN climate talks as an opportunity to strike oil and gas deals. Leaked briefing documents reveal plans to discuss fossil fuel deals with 15 nations. While a COP28 spokesperson has said the documents were “inaccurate”, the UAE team did not deny using COP28 meetings for business talks and said, “Private meetings are private”.

• The recently issued Global Stocktake said the world is racing well past the global warming limit as carbon emissions rise instead of plunge. To limit warming to 1.5°C, countries would have to reduce their emissions by 42% by the end of the decade.

• An Oxfam report highlighted that the richest 1% of people account for more carbon emissions than the poorest 66%. One-third of the carbon emissions of the richest 1% today are associated with the consumption of people in the USA, with the next biggest contributions coming from people in China and the Gulf countries. Moreover, 40% of the carbon emissions of the richest 10% today are associated with the consumption of individuals in North America and the EU, and around one-fifth with the consumption of individuals in China and India.

For additional counsel on geopolitical matters, please contact your
Weber Shandwick client service team or get in touch

• The content of this news bulletin is a summary of publicly available news articles on events and developments related to Asia Pacific business sectors
• The views and opinions reflected by these headlines do not necessarily represent those of Weber Shandwick